Latest Topics in News
IIT Projects India’s Surface Temperature to Rise 1.1-5.1°C by 2100 Due to Climate Change
India’s Surface Temperature to Rise Significantly by 2100
- IIT Kharagpur study estimates India’s surface temperature may rise 1.1-5.1°C by 2100
- Study published in Nature journal last month
- Conducted in association with Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
- Projections made by investigating temperature trends from 1980-2020
A recent study conducted by the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (IIT-KGP) estimates that India’s average surface temperature could rise significantly by the year 2100. Published in Nature journal last month, the study projects that temperatures across India may increase between 1.1 to 5.1°C by 2100. This IIT-KGP study was conducted in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune. Here is an analysis of this Study by the UCN Team to give you the key concepts and insights.
The projections made in this study by IIT are based on investigating long-term trends and patterns of surface temperature rise across India from 1980 to 2020. Specifically, the researchers analyzed surface, satellite and reanalysis temperature data over this 40-year period to identify historical warming patterns. They then used this understanding to make future projections of temperature rise under different emissions scenarios.
The study highlights that under high emissions scenarios, some models show that temperatures could rise as high as 5.1°C over India by 2100. This projected rise is almost on par with upper-end estimates for global average temperature increase. The findings underline India’s vulnerability to climate change and the urgent need for adaptation and mitigation strategies.
| Sections | Details |
|---|---|
| Historical Temperature Rise |
|
| Projected Temperature Increase |
|
| Drivers and Impacts |
|
| Key Recommendations |
|
| Significance for India |
|
About the Study
Objectives
The key objectives of the IIT Kharagpur study were:
- Examine long-term surface temperature trends in India from 1980-2020
- Assess influence of geophysical drivers like greenhouse gases on temperature change
- Make future projections of temperature rise under different emissions scenarios
Methodology
The study utilized the following methodology:
- Used surface, satellite, and reanalysis temperature data from 1980-2020
- Employed causal discovery to understand effect of drivers like greenhouse gases
- Analyzed CMIP6 climate model projections for future scenarios
Timeframe
- Historical temperature data analyzed from 1980 to 2020
- Future projections made for scenarios up to 2100
Key Data Sources
- Surface measurements from India Meteorological Department
- Satellite data from Indian National Satellite System
- Reanalysis data from ERA-5, MERRA-2 and NCEP
- Climate model projections from CMIP6 database
Regional Focus
- Long-term temperature trends examined across different regions of India
- Projections made for average country-wide rise in surface temperature
Methodology
The IIT Kharagpur study utilized the following methodology:
- Temperature Data Analysis
- Used surface temperature measurements from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) from 1980-2020
- Examined satellite-derived temperature data from Indian National Satellite System (INSAT-3D) for 2014-2020
- Analyzed reanalysis temperature data from ERA-5, MERRA-2 and NCEP for 1980-2020
- Causal Discovery
- Employed causal discovery algorithms and statistical modeling
- Assessed influence of geophysical drivers on temperature variability
- Identified key factors affecting surface temperature changes
- Future Projections
- Used CMIP6 climate model database
- Analyzed projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios
- SSP1-2.6 (low emissions scenario)
- SSP2-4.5 (intermediate emissions scenario)
- SSP5-8.5 (high emissions scenario)
- Made projections for near future (2030-2049), mid future (2060-2079) and far future (2080-2099)
- Regional Analysis
- Divided India into 7 homogeneous regions
- Examined temperature trends for each region separately
- Statistical Analysis
- Used linear regression to estimate temperature trends
- Performed multiple linear regression with climate indices
- Assessed statistical significance of all trends
The multi-pronged methodology provided detailed insights into India’s historical and projected temperature changes.
Major Findings
Observed Temperature Rise
- Increasing temperature trends were observed in:
- Pre-monsoon season (March-May)
- Post-monsoon season (October-November)
- Significant rise found in:
- Western Himalayan region
- Northeast India
- Temperature rise lower than global average so far
Projected Temperature Rise
- Under moderate emissions scenario:
- 1.2 to 2°C rise projected by 2100
- Under high emissions scenario:
- 3.5 to 5.1°C rise projected by 2100
- If emissions do not decline significantly:
- Around 3°C rise projected
The major findings highlight that while India has warmed less than global average so far, it faces risks of significant temperature rise in the future if emissions are not controlled. The projections indicate that under high emissions scenario, India could warm up by over 5°C by 2100 – an alarming number with serious implications.
Key Drivers and Impacts
- Greenhouse gas emissions major factor behind warming
- Likely impacts:
- Glacier retreat in Himalayas
- Increased frequency and severity of heatwaves
- Higher incidence of flash floods and droughts
- Urgent adaptation and mitigation measures needed to deal with impacts
Final Thoughts
According to the UCN team’s analysis:
- Study reinforces India’s vulnerability to climate change
- Rise in surface temperature a major concern for policymakers
- Concerted global action required to mitigate temperature rise through:
- Reducing greenhouse gas emissions
- Investing in clean energy sources
- Climate-smart agriculture and infrastructure
- Regional and seasonal nuances must guide adaptation strategies
- Findings underline need for enhancing systemic resilience of communities
From the UCN team’s perspective, the study highlights the significant temperature rise India may experience in the coming decades due to climate change. This has serious implications for India’s development, ecosystems and vulnerable communities. Urgent adaptation and mitigation policies as well as global cooperation are needed to avert the worst impacts.
What are some of the key greenhouse gases responsible for global warming?
The major greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming are:
– Carbon dioxide (CO2)
– Methane
– Nitrous oxide
– Chlorofluorocarbons
– Water vapor
CO2 is the most prevalent greenhouse gas emitted through human activities such as burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Methane has a global warming potential more than 25 times that of CO2 over a 100-year period. Reducing emissions of these key greenhouse gases through mitigation efforts is crucial to tackle global warming.
What measures can India take to adapt to the projected temperature rise?
Some measures India can take to adapt to the projected temperature rise are:
– Developing heat-resistant crop varieties and changing cropping patterns/cycles
– Improving irrigation facilities and water management
– Increasing forest cover and green spaces in urban areas
– Constructing cool rooftops and shades in cities
– Developing early warning systems for heat waves
– Improving healthcare infrastructure to deal with heat-related illnesses
– Investing in climate-resilient infrastructure and buildings
– Educating communities on heat stress management
– Strengthening disaster management capacities
– Diversifying livelihood options and incomes especially for vulnerable communities
– Improving access to air-conditioning and cooling centers
Adaptation efforts need to take into account regional disparities and aim to boost systemic resilience of communities to deal with higher temperatures. A mix of structural and non-structural measures tailored to local contexts can help India adapt better.
