Senegal’s Democratic Crisis Explained

Senegal Crisis Background

Senegal views itself as one of the most politically stable countries in West Africa, with a democratic system that has avoided military takeovers occurring elsewhere in the region. President Macky Sall’s second and constitutionally mandated final 5-year term is set to expire on April 2, 2024. National elections to select the next president were originally scheduled for February 25, 2024 before Sall recently announced an indefinite postponement. In the lead up to the planned February vote, Senegal’s Constitutional Council disqualified several opposition candidates from running, triggering disputes over the validity of the candidate list.

Current Senegal Crisis Reason

• Senegal’s President Macky Sall postponed the presidential elections scheduled for February 25th to December 15th, just weeks before the end of his second and final term. This extended his time in office by 10 more months.
• The official reason given was a dispute between the National Assembly and the Constitutional Council over candidate selection procedures.
• Opposition legislators were furious over the deferred vote and were dragged out of parliament by riot police when protesting the decision.
• The postponed election is viewed by critics as an unconstitutional coup by Sall to stay in power longer, with a parliament now packed with government lawmakers after the opposition was removed.
• Protests have emerged across Senegal over the decision, which the police have cracked down on harshly through detentions and violence, leading to the death of one protestor.

Senegal’s position as a regional leader in democratic governance has shown signs of backsliding in recent years under President Sall’s administration. Critics have accused Sall of placing limits on opposition groups and free speech. Tensions over these human rights concerns as well as frustration with unemployment and desire for political change among Senegalese youth contributed to violent protests in 2021 which resulted in multiple deaths.

What are the Trigger of Current Senegal Crisis?

On February 4th, 2024, President Macky Sall announced in a televised address that Senegal postponed the presidential election indefinitely from the originally scheduled date of February 25th. Sall stated that his rationale for delaying the vote aimed to allow time for an inquiry into objections raised over the disqualification of several would-be opposition candidates by the Constitutional Council. Prominent opposition figures Ousmane Sonko and Karim Wade were among those the Council barred from running in the election.

Sall’s election postponement triggered an eruption of protests from opposition groups accusing him of attempting to overstay his constitutional term limit and cling to power. On February 5th, 2024, police clashed violently with demonstrators in the capital Dakar, utilizing tear gas in an attempt to disperse the crowds. The protests and resulting government crackdown elicited condemnation from international bodies including the UN, African Union, and Economic Community of West African States.

Domestic analysts warned that if Sall does not carefully handle his actions in delaying the election, he could propel Senegal into political instability and damage its reputation as a democratic leader in the region.

Senegal Government Response against Protestors in Dakar

Senegal’s government reacted to the wave of opposition protests over the election delay with aggressive police action and parliamentary maneuvers to formalize President Sall’s postponement decree. On February 5th, security forces dispersed demonstrators in Dakar using tear gas and arrested prominent opposition leaders such as former Prime Minister Aminata Toure. Senegal’s National Assembly then held a contentious session on February 6th in which it passed legislation to reschedule the presidential election until December 15th, 2024. The Assembly forcibly removed multiple opposition parliament members ahead of the decisive vote, prompting accusations of an undemocratic breach of legislative norms.

Senegal Crisis and its Constitutional Analysis

Experts have asserted that President Sall’s open-ended election delay violates Senegal’s constitution, which contains no provision for an indefinite postponement of the vote. Analysts believe Sall’s actions have fueled public suspicion that he intends to remain in power beyond his term limit, which expires on April 2nd. The crisis threatens to erode Senegal’s standing as a rare consolidating democracy in the region, as international observers question its commitment to democratic principles. With opposition groups accusing Sall of a “constitutional coup”, analysts warn the lack of a transparent resolution could spark further unrest and even precipitate political turmoil or violence.

Human Rights Concerns in Senegal Crisis

Human rights organizations have documented the use of excessive force by Senegalese security personnel in response to recent political demonstrations. According to Human Rights Watch, at least 37 individuals have been killed in violent clashes with police since March 2021 without any officials being held criminally accountable. The assaults on protesters, combined with arrests of opposition figures and restrictions on media, represent an alarming erosion of basic rights and freedoms during President Sall’s administration. The continuation of such abusive tactics in the context of the current electoral crisis raises worries about further violations of civil liberties and loss of life.

Future Outlook of Senegal Crisis

The trajectory of Senegal’s electoral crisis rests on upcoming legal judgements and the reaction of opposition groups to those decisions. Multiple appeals have challenged the Constitutional Court regarding the legality of the election postponement. While the situation remains uncertain, analysts convey there is still an opportunity for dialogue and compromise to return Senegal to a peaceful democratic order if stakeholders negotiate in good faith. But the window for de-escalation is narrow, as further demonstrations, violence, or crackdowns could rapidly plunge the country into prolonged instability.